UBS forecasts elevated S&P 500 volatility in 2025, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, policy shifts, and geopolitical risks. With government stimulus waning, slower nominal growth is expected, particularly in China and the US, leading to intermittent volatility spikes linked to growth data.The firm anticipates the volatility index to average around 20%, with volatility-of-volatility exceeding 110%. Additionally, concerns over tech earnings and potential tariff tensions could further complicate the economic landscape, particularly affecting European equities and US markets.